Risk Management

Range Partials Planner

Every range fade has the same 3 exits on offer: take it all at the midpoint, take half there and hold half for the far edge, or hold everything for the far edge. Which one pays depends on 2 numbers only you have: how often your fades reach the midpoint, and how often they go on to the far edge after that. Enter the levels, the account and those 2 rates from your journal, and the planner sizes the trade and scores the 3 plans in R per trade. Expectancy = Σ(probability × outcome), with the half-and-half plan modeled the way it's traded: stop to entry once the first half is off.

The trade

Entry at the edge

Stop

Midpoint

Far edge

The account

Account

Risk per trade, %

Value per 1.0 of price, 1 contract

Smallest size step

ES is $50 per point per contract, MES $5, a standard FX lot is 100,000 units so 1.0 of price is 100,000 in the counter currency. Size step is 1 for futures, 0.01 for FX lots.

Your hit rates

Fades that reach the midpoint, %

Of those, reach the far edge, %

From your log, not your gut. If you don't have them yet, 65 and 45 are ordinary numbers for a fade with a rejection bar behind it.

Load an example

Waiting for the levels

···Size

Expectancy per trade, in R · ···

No plan yet

Enter the 4 levels, the account and the 2 hit rates. Everything updates as you type.

How it scores. Risk per contract = |entry − stop| × value per point. Size = the largest multiple of the size step that keeps risk at or under account × risk %. R to the midpoint = (mid − entry) / (entry − stop), R to the far edge the same way. P1 = your rate of reaching the midpoint, P2 = your rate of going on to the far edge once the midpoint is hit. Plan A, all at the midpoint: E = P1 × R_mid − (1 − P1). Plan B, half at the midpoint then stop to entry: E = (1 − P1) × (−1) + P1 × (0.5 × R_mid + P2 × 0.5 × R_far); the second half either reaches the far edge or is stopped flat. Plan C, all at the far edge with the original stop: E = P1 × P2 × R_far − (1 − P1 × P2). The winner is the plan with the highest E; the planner also shows the P2 where B and C cross, so you know how good your runners have to be before holding everything pays. Keyboard: 1 to 3 load the examples.

Educational tool only, not financial advice. The plan is only as good as the 2 hit rates, and a hit rate from 12 trades is a guess with decimals. Log 50 before you trust it.

Built by Jason Parker, founder of Trading Ranges.